Thanksgiving shoppers may not find everything on their grocery list
Americans, who are already bracing themselves for the financial pressure of paying extra for their Thanksgiving feasts, are now being advised to be prepared to make replacements. What is the explanation for this? Supply-chain issues may make it difficult to locate everything on your grocery list.
Food and other home essentials are in less supply than usual, owing to global supply disruptions that are driving up food prices. Meanwhile, shoppers are starting their holiday shopping early this year, a few weeks ahead of schedule.
"People are shopping early," Krishnakumar Davey, president of client engagement at IRI, a source of purchasing, social, and other data, told CBS MoneyWatch. "Turkeys, pies, stuffing mixes - these are items people are buying early." "You might not be able to acquire it if you're picky about what you use."
According to IRI's report, supermarket stockpiles of whole-bird turkeys were at 39 percent as of October 31, while a fourth of grocery store vegetable aisles were out of sweet potatoes and yams. IRI discovered that aerosol whipped toppings were more frequently available, with an 88 percent in-stock rate, and that cranberry sauce can be obtained in eight out of ten retailers on average.
Ocean Spray, one of the country's top cranberry sauce producers, has admitted to supply-chain concerns, including a shortage of basic materials and transportation problems. In an email to CBS MoneyWatch, a representative for the 700-farm cooperative said, "While we do not anticipate severe disruptions, consumers may see minor availability challenges at times."
According to IRI, frozen pies and pastry shells are also possible problem areas, with in-stock rates of 83 percent and 81 percent, respectively. Overall, in-stock rates are hovering around 80%, which is about 10% lower than usual. That shouldn't make shoppers rush to the store, but it may mean they won't waste time waiting for a bargain.
"If you're waiting for a promotion, don't," Davey advised.
Early shopping advised
As more people plan to host Thanksgiving this year, supplies are limited and prices are higher. According to a recent Instacart/Harris poll of over 5,000 Americans, nearly one-third of adults (37%) plan to have 10 or more relatives and friends around for the holidays this year.
Approximately half of those hosting, or at the very least providing a dish, are concerned about collecting all of the necessary items. According to the surveys, about a third said they planned to start buying what they needed by the end of October.
"To ensure you're able to get everything you need on your Thanksgiving shopping list, we strongly recommend starting your grocery shopping earlier than usual this year," Laurentia Romaniuk, Instacart's trends expert, stated in a news release. "We recommend that people start shopping for their non-perishable and frozen ingredients in early November and load up on fresh ingredients as far out from the Thanksgiving holiday as feasible."
All of this means that anyone seeking a fresh-from-the-farm turkey may be out of luck.
Major run on turkeys
Hurd Farm, a 700-bird operation in Hampton, New Hampshire, has officially sold out of Thanksgiving turkeys. While it's not unusual to run out of turkeys by early November, owner Stephen Hurd told CBS MoneyWatch that demand is significantly higher than usual. "I'm getting a lot more calls and requests for it."
According to Pounds Turkey Farm in Leechburg, Pennsylvania, this year's "turkey season has been unlike any other." "Orders have been coming in at an extraordinary rate, and we have already sold out of fresh turkey and breast goods, according to our estimates. This usually occurs in mid-November, rather than October "According to the farm's website.
Beverly Pounds of Pounds Turkey Farm in Leechburg, Pennsylvania, told the local CBS affiliate in Pittsburgh, "We have ceased processing orders right now." She claimed the farm is selling roughly 7,000 birds, the most of which weigh between 10 and 12 pounds.
Turkey output was down 2.4 percent in September compared to the same month last year, and expanding hatchings to meet rising demand has been difficult. According to a recent research by Steiner Consulting Group, this is up 2% in August and 1% in September after falling 4.2 percent in the first seven months of the year.
"The rebound in hatchery output will not be soon enough to boost turkey production significantly for Thanksgiving but should be available for the Christmas market," the Steiner analysts noted.
They said that between July and October, the turkey business moved more entire birds into cold storage than in any year since 2009, with the increased frozen supplies causing minimal concerns for the December holiday.
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